Baseball is a game of numbers. Statistics. Cold and calculating.
Here’s the facts, boys, just the facts:
Our Tigers are pretty much a .500 ball club. According to their record to date in 2009, they should win a game, then lose a game. Here and there, now and then, they win two in a row.
But our boys are different. They are what we fans call “streaky.” Hot as Dallas in August, cold as Traverse City in February (not including global warming.) Allow me to prove it.
The Tigs have played 90 games as of Monday: 48 wins, 42 losses. But incredibly, of those 90 games 50, or far more than half were part of a streak where they were winning or losing three or more in a row! Part of the reason they are in first is that they have twice peeled off seven game winning streaks (May and June) and have only hit the skids with a four game slump twice (both in June.)
They are so streaky, there was one period in May they went 13 consecutive games on streaks, three wins, three losses, then seven wins!
So what can we predict from here on out?
More streaks, what else? I predict the Bengals will lose tonight. They might even lose again come Wednesday night, making a five game losing streak something they have not done in '09.
According to my calculations, they will then waffle a bit, win one, lose one or so, and then get red hot, putting distance between themselves and the ChiSox.
More statistical comment tomorrow.
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what an old fart --
ReplyDeleteJust enjoy the damn season nad the fact that we are in firt place!!
spelling and typos is optional
ReplyDeleteSo who is calling who "old?" I graduated from high school in 1970, and unless you were a boy genius, skipping a few grades, you must be older than me!
ReplyDeleteOBTW, that stuff was just a hoax, and yu fell for it. Ask Kooch or Peek. I just wanted to provoke some argument, and I guess I did with you.
I believe what little I learned about mathmatics and statistics from good old Andy Pux, God rest his soul, was that you could flip a coin ten times, and get a head every time (a streak) and yet the odds of flipping heads next time remain 50/50. It's just that the odds of rolling 11 heads in a row (before the streak begins) are incredibly long. In other words, any streak does not predict what will happen next. I say bet on the starting pitcher.